The Habs Are Better Than You Think

Yes, you read that title correctly. I am about to defend the Montreal Canadiens and tell you why they'll make the playoffs and why they'll be tough to eliminate. I know the hip thing to do is scream from the rooftops that the sky is falling, but if you think about it, you might realize the glass is half full. And no, it's not because I drank half a glass of Kool-Aid.

I'll get the obvious negatives out of the way first. Clearly, the powerplay is not working well. They're producing goals at a measly 11.8% rate with the man advantage, which is good for 28th in the NHL. In fact, if you negate the 5 shorthanded goals they've given up from their powerplay total, it drops to 7.6%. They would then be 29th in the NHL for the nifty PP statistic I just made up. The word abysmal isn't strong enough to describe it. It's abysmally abysmal. On top of that, there's the nasty habit they have of blowing leads, especially after scoring first. They have now lost 11 games (and counting) in which they've held the lead.

So why don't those problems bother me? Because the Habs are so good at playing 1-man down that it's actually making up for the power play. If you combine their 11.8% PP and 89.3% PK you get more than 100%. To me, that's a better indication of where their special teams are at. Teams don't just live and die with the PP, they live and die with special teams. Not to mention, after years of struggling 5-on-5, they are actually a plus team at even strength. Want to know something else? They're also averaging more shots/game than their opponents. Looking at their team stats, the only conclusion you can draw is that they're a competitive team who simply are not capitalizing on their opportunities.

Speaking of not capitalizing on opportunities, the Habs have blown leads in 11 of their 18 losses. Now, I do not recall any team ever having defeat snatched from the jaws of victory so often, which leads me to believe this is only an aberration. Please, correct me if I'm wrong. I couldn't find a historical statistic. I just simply can't believe that at the end of the season a team would actually have a lead in 60% of their losses. That either means they're gonna quit blowing it or simply lose games outright. And as long as Carey Price is around, they're not going to be losing too many games outright. He's more than keeping the team in every game and played well enough to steal a couple. It might not be at the near-Vezina level it was a year ago, but no one in the league plays more games at a higher level than he does.

Does anyone really think Michael Cammalleri will get worse? Or that P.K. Subban will not find his stride? Sure, Travis Moen's production will trail off, I'll give you that. But players like Max Pacioretty and Lars Eller are only getting better. Heck, Pacioretty just needs to stay the course. And can I get odds on Eller breaking out in the last 40 games, much like Tomas Plekanec (the player he looks up to the most and is often compared to) did in the latter half of his own 2nd NHL season?

Let's not forget the Bell Centre faithful's fiercest fan favourite, Alexei Emelin. It only took him a perfectly reasonable 20 games to get his timing down in the NHL and now he's leaving a trail of broken bodies in his wake. People are also forgetting just how young this defense corp is. Jacques Martin has stressed in press conferences because it's true. He might deploy some mind numbing coaching strategies, but in another year where injuries have hit the team hard, they continue to be tough to play against.

This team could have quit a long time ago. They could have packed it up to get the coach fired. Instead, since the 1-5-2 start, they are actually 11-6-5. That's not a team that has quit on it's coach. Granted, they pull no shows against the cellar dwellers, but since Bob Gainey assembled most of this squad, they especially refuse to go away when you expect them to. Psychologically, the OT losses may be taking a toll, but mathematically those extra points are adding up to keep that 8th seed within arm's reach. As soon as they rip off that inevitable 3 game streak or go 5-for-6, they'll be sitting around 6th place and everyone will be patting each other on the back saying they knew it all along.

If you think this team should tank, go take a look at the rosters of any Canadiens season between 1999 and 2002. Those are teams that should have been scrapped to rebuild long term. This team just has too much to tear down. It's like imploding a skyscraper that's already reached the 50th floor because you want to redesign the bathrooms. The Habs might not be a Stanley Cup favourite, but they have an elite goalie, some quality veterans and a few flashy kids, which is enough to ensure there will be hockey in La Belle Province this spring. As usual.

Better grab a seat while you still can. This bandwagon fills up pretty quick.

Major Reality Check: The Canadiens are just not that good

Upon the conclusion of Montreal's 4-3 shootout loss to the Vancouver Canucks, a couple of thoughts re-occurred to me.

It's hard to tell rabid Canadiens fans that their team isn't all that good. Invariably, there's a reason for any prolonged period of winlessness. It's the coach's fault. It's the special teams. It's injuries.

But sometimes, it's just that the team isn't all that good. Period. End of story.

Here's the honest truth about winning the Stanley Cup and contending in the National Hockey League. First, you need a redhot, lights out goaltender, one capable of putting up back-to-back shutouts, one who intimidates shooters. The Canadiens have a good goalie in Carey Price. Lights out? No. Intimidating to the opposing forwards? No. Capable of standing on his head and carrying a team for long stretches? Unknown.

The truth about Price is he seems to be an unfinished product. There are brilliant and boneheaded plays from him on a regular basis. Clearly, the good outweighs the negative. But to call him an elite goaltender on the same level as Tim Thomas or some of the other consistent stalwarts, would be a mistake.

Next, a team needs elite offensive finishers, players who have that special knack of scoring the timely goal or hitting the top corner instead of putting the puck into the netminder's pads. These electric players are always key in a cup run and to contending. Stamkos, Crosby, Malkin, Sedins, Perry, Toews, Kane. You get the idea. Who does Montreal have? NO ONE. They have Cammalleri, a guy who can't stickhandle his way into space in order to get off a shot. He's also not the most consistent guy in the world, either. Cammalleri gets a free pass because he was clutch in the postseason a couple of seasons ago. Fine. Impressive. But what have you done for me lately? Anyone else in the supposed killer-instinct, elite scorer category on the Habs? Didn't think so.

Okay, so if you don't have either of these preceding elements, then you need a lockdown system, kind of like what Guy Boucher had going last season for the Lightning. Montreal doesn't have this, either. You can blame it partly on the inexperience of the defense or even on the injuries. But the bottom line is the coaching staff mixes and matches the lines and defensive pairings so much, the players can never really get into a rhythm.

Add in things like Price not making saves in a shootout, the team giving up shorthanded goals, the taking of too many men penalties, no hard, consistent forecheck and a lack of energy and passion, etc... and you have a team that should miss the playoffs.

So what do you do then? Well, you have faith in Price that he will grow into an elite netminder. You continue to let the youth grow and you build around your core players, such as Subban, Pacioretty, Plekanec, etc...

If Habs fans were realists and truly understood the plight and ceiling of this team, they'd encourage the team to jettison veteran players in favor of tanking the season and getting some picks, including maybe even landing a lottery pick come next June.

Let's not be stupid, Canadiens backers, let's take advantage of this wasted season and use it to the team's advantage in the future.

Otherwise, if they go all-in to simply make the playoffs, other than the home postseason payoff for the owners, what's really accomplished? It's not like they're capable of winning a series with this roster.

Remember when they missed the playoffs AND didn't trade Sheldon Souray? I bet they wished they could have that one back, huh?


You can follow me on Twitter @gamepointsradio and listen to us on TSN 990 Radio Montreal this Sunday, 6pm EST.